Changes in the crop world market: what will be the  food supply without the Russia-Ukraine war?

Yue Wu; László Hanka; Katalin Takács-György

Yue Wu Óbuda University Doctoral School for Safety and Security Sciences | Óbuda University Bánki Donát Faculty of Mechanical and Safety Engineering https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-5654
László Hanka Óbuda University Bánki Donát Faculty of Mechanical and Safety Engineering | University of Public Service, Faculty of Military Science and Officer Training https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9129-7481
Katalin Takács-György Óbuda University Keleti Faculty of Business and Management https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9129-7481

Keywords: food supply, food security, crop export quantity, time series analysis, Russia-Ukraine war

Abstract

After COVID-19 and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, we have suffered the most severe food crisis since 2007/2008 world financial and economic crisis. However, the two countries at war are significant world food suppliers, indicating the negative influence of war on food security. In this research, we aimed to predict the main crop export quantity in Ukraine for the period 2022 (the year when the war started) till 2024. We used time series analysis as a research methodology and Matlab software to carry out the analysis. In the end, we found that Russia and Ukraine are estimated to play increasingly important roles in the world food supply regarding wheat, maize, barley, and sunflower seed. China’s role in wheat, maize, and barley exports is projected to decrease, but the sunflower seed will increase. This research result can also be a solid basis for the future comparative study on the influence of the Russia-Ukraine war on the world food supply.